Ethereum’s value against bitcoin has risen to above 0.076, up from 0.072 BTC at the beginning of the month as it reaches its highest level in a month.
In one of the biggest day of volatility when volumes reached their highest level in a year, eth seemingly fought against bitcoin with it falling less than the biggest crypto.
Bitcoin for its part tried to hold off against Nasdaq as the tech stocks index saw another 4% fall with numerous prominent companies down 80% since their high.
Yet bitcoin gave in, falling below $33,000 to briefly revisit the upper $29,000s. Eth fought on, often refusing to move even as bitcoin tried dragging it down.
The $2,200 level held in the end, with ethereum seemingly attracting less pressure this time in contrast to it falling even more than bitcoin during the last cycle in 2017-18.
One reason for it may well be cyclical. Eth currently is arguably at bitcoin’s 2018. Back then, BTC held a lot better than other cryptos, cementing its store of value position.
This time ethereum may well play that role, holding off against downward pressures this cycle, at least better than other cryptos.
Another reason may well be that Luna sold off $2.2 billion worth of bitcoin, and so BTC’s price was affected more.
It may also be that eth has more utility, which due to the burning translates into direct income for holders as some 2.3 million eth in total gets removed from circulation.
Ethereum might thus hold better during a bear as network usage directly translates to demand, a network usage that includes stablecoins like USDt or USDc which may be less affected by bull or bear.
Both bitcoin and eth however have held better than some stocks. Netflix is down to $175 from a $700 all time high. Shopify is at $346 from $1763. Rivian is at just $22 from $189. While Square is at $84 from $289. Bitcoin is at $30k from $70k.
Absolutely brutal, with this being the biggest crash in tech stocks since the Dotcom bubble burst in 2000.
Many, especially innovative companies, have lost 90%. Bitcoin’s minus 50% in contrast is not as bad, with both bitcoin and eth showing some resistance to the macro doom.
A macro that for today has Nasdaq up just 1.7%. No fight back at a collapse for many stocks, just a calm as markets wait for the new inflation data tomorrow.
They are published monthly, while the GDP numbers are published quarterly. It’s the April inflation, when for the first time it is not over zero as it jumped in April last year to 4.2%.
For March inflation was 8.5%. So inflation will have to rise by 4.2% in just a month for tomorrow’s data to show an inflation rate higher than 8.5%.
So expectations are it will be down to 8.1%. We should get a 6% however, which is more in line with consumer’s expectations, assuming no data is cooked.
Then over May last year, we get a stable 5% inflation rate in 2021 until September. Very convenient for Powell to stealthily hike by 0.5% in the next two meetings, just in time for inflation to be measured over 6.2% in October and then close to 7% in November. Meaning this November inflation will have to rise by 14% to show a higher than 7% rate.
Quite unlikely, and so we may even get some relief tomorrow, with the market potentially getting ammo to argue that further hikes should be paused and any increase above 0.25% must be taken off the table.